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Friday, October 21, 2016

Trend of supporting rate on Twitter for Hillary and Trump

In this post, I want to report the support rate in previous month (9/5/2016-10/23/2016) for Hillary and Trump based on the number of tweets on a set of pre-selected hashtags, ten in for each side. The details about these selected  hashtags can be found in my previous post.

In the following figure, by looking at the percentage of the supporting tweets at a daily basis, we can observe whether each side's supporting rate has significant change overtime. There is no significant change of each side's support ratio since the first present debate 2016, which happened on Sept 26 2016. However, there is a significant pattern shows that the number of Twitters always increases significantly after each debate.

Before second debate, Oct. 9th 2016, Hillary's supporting ratio went up. After debate, the ratio come down again. Overall, it looks like her supporting ratio has trend to go up?

Edit: Based on below figure, it looks like Hillary's support ratio is going down.

Edit: It looks like Hillary gained more support after third debate as as the trend shows her support rate going up. Or, in other words, Trump lost some supporters on Twitter? It will be interesting to study if those "supporters" will continuously post tweets on Twitter or they will just show their opinion and waiting for the voting day.

Edit: It looks like that Hillary's supporting rate is going down.

Fig. 1 shows the percentage of supporters on Twitter. The value of percentage may have bias because of sampled population. However, the trend of each side's supporting ratio may reveal some truth.


Fig. 2 shows the number of active Twitters everyday. It reveals people's passion on the elections affect by major events like debates etc.



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